A straw man comparison. OP is saying that they can intuitively pick up (sometimes) on unreasonable downtrends (when they occur). These happen because of historical events and market reaction to those events. The probabilities are based on dependent events in the case of the market, and on independent events in the case of a coin flip, which is a critical distinction (but does not mean that OP can predict results 100% in either case).

My reply has to be read in the context of other comments from speedplane: “You're still trying to read the future, if you could do that well, you could make money betting on coin flips.”