>Yes, I should have been more clear that this is just my opinions/speculation.

I'd said it's unexpectedly insightful for a talk on an internet forum. That's a very subtle line that I think only one out of 50 academicians around picked up.

One fact that can be made for sure is that China been preparing for a scenario as bad as North Korean trade isolation for decades. Not puny tarrifs that they are under now.

The whole arrangement of political alliances, preferred classes of assets abroad, currency swaps, infrastructure planning confirms that.

May I know, what is your day job?

Have a CS academic background but work as a quant in finance.