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A comment on Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace. Parent comment

Re:Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized bett... by GreenPlastic on Monday August 20, 2018 @01:37PM (#17801967)
Yes, it works very well but not for the 'wisdom of the crowds' effect. It works because the people with the most information and best models sharpen up the price. Over time, the sharpest bettors grow their bankrolls or capital exponentially and place larger bets and have a disproportionate weight on the markets and their opinions matter more, making markets more efficient.
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Re:Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized bett... by adam on Monday August 20, 2018 @02:59PM (#17802801)
In theory you're right - but this isn't how it works in practice. The people who earn the most money are the best traders, not necessarily the people with the "most information and best models." The overall forecasts tend to be accurate, but you cannot look to individual participants, see who has the most money, and assume they know the most about the subject at hand.
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Re:Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized bett... by skolsuper on Monday August 20, 2018 @10:01PM (#17806235)
Both right: on an individual level the people with the most money might or might not be the smartest, but in aggregate the money moves towards the smarter bettors, weighting their votes higher in future rounds, improving the aggregate intelligence of the market.
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Re:Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized bett... by merinowool on Monday August 20, 2018 @06:03PM (#17804423)
How can one make money with that knowledge put to work?
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