I’m a lot more pessimistic than you about the rate of change. I recently went through Eureka (California) and most of the cafes and restaurants there did not accept Apple Pay, contactless payment, or even chip and pin payment. Eventually we found a place that did accept Apple Pay so we could eat.

While Apple Pay itself is only about four years old, contactless payment has been fairly standard in the UK for about 10 years, and chip and pin is over 20 years old.