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A comment on Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets. Parent comment

Re:Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets by st26 on Tuesday August 14, 2018 @12:06AM (#17755520)
There is absolutely no saying what the likelihood of a recession is.

Agreed, unlike every other random event that exists in the universe, recessions are the one thing whose likelyhood cannot possibly be expressed.

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Re:Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets by chrisco255 on Tuesday August 14, 2018 @01:44AM (#17755830)
Problem here is it's not a repeatable experiment. The sample size is 1 world economy.
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Re:Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets by lucisferre on Tuesday August 14, 2018 @09:57PM (#17763274)
This is a fair comment and I'm not sure why you were downvoted. However it is not a single random event either. A continuous random process with memory would probably be the most appropriate model, and this would be what Vanguard and others use to make estimations of likelihood.
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