Re:Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese lea...
by mc32 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @10:53AM
(#17724682)
It's too early to predict outcomes. I will say the Dems putting out more Ocasio-Corteses is a gift to the Reps. The afterberners have very specific constituencies which only exist in special environments. They don't have any broad appeal.
Re:Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese lea...
by throw272109 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @11:31AM
(#17725032)
Reading Nassim Taleb's article [1], I feel politics will become more and more extreme in the coming years.
Where it will become the far-left vs the far-right. And honestly, the US "far-left" isn't really that extreme compared to some European parties.
1. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dict...
Re:Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese lea...
by mc32 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @11:34AM
(#17725064)
But isn't that because the electorate itself doesn’t support such candidates? The Dems going hard left will make it easier for Repubs to be electable.
Re:Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese lea...
by AnimalMuppet on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:15PM
(#17726190)
Only to the degree that the Republicans don't go hard right.
Re:Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese lea...
by heurist on Thursday August 09, 2018 @11:25AM
(#17724978)
I think their appeal is broader than conventional Democrats. Sanders won northern rural Democrats over Clinton in the primaries, which seems to indicate a precise rift that hasn't been fully elaborated:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/national-results-map
Re:Handling of U.S. trade dispute causes rift in Chinese lea...
by mc32 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @11:31AM
(#17725040)
Clinton was the worst possible broadly electable candidate dems could have put forward. Gephardt would have been better. She was and remains a devisive figure. Dems who broke didn't as much vote for Bernie or Trump but voted against Hillary.
Trump seems to like the pomp of a 'win'... real or imagined.
I think it will come down to how quickly things escalate and if Trump runs or wins in 2020. It's possible the Chinese will hold out until then and adjust accordingly... I think the stakes are high on both sides. Thus far China has had virtually no economic push back to the transfer of jobs and wealth from the US. If the Chinese can break through, I doubt anything will stop China's accent. Likewise, if Trump doesn't persist it's possible he'll lose his voter base and it's unlikely that any other administration will have the stomach to take on China.
I think it's possible that if a few other things go Trump's way (North Korean, Iran, the wall) he'll have enough voter support for a second term. I don't see a blue wave forming if that happens, nor do I see a large pool of credible Democratic Party presidential candidates emerging no matter how uncouth Trump's rhetoric. A perfect example is Ocasio-Cortez and her socialist policies who I don't see appealing to a large enough voter base.