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Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ... by aetherson on Saturday August 04, 2018 @10:33AM (#17686982)
There's a 20% chance that the volunteer was initially correct. In the 80% case, one of the two remaining cups has the price beneath it, so choosing one of the remaining cups gets you a 40% chance of payout instead of your initial 20%. Switching doubles your chance of payout.

This should be straightforward to anyone who actually understands the Monty Hall problem.

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