Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by aetherson on Saturday August 04, 2018 @10:33AM
(#17686982)
There's a 20% chance that the volunteer was initially correct. In the 80% case, one of the two remaining cups has the price beneath it, so choosing one of the remaining cups gets you a 40% chance of payout instead of your initial 20%. Switching doubles your chance of payout.
This should be straightforward to anyone who actually understands the Monty Hall problem.
This should be straightforward to anyone who actually understands the Monty Hall problem.