I'm not sure if anyone who knows what they're talking thought China was going to fail in 1990. I think most of the world at that time was concentrating on Japan, Russia, and US. China was too small of a player to be noticed by anyone prominent.
In any case, my observation is based on numbers and trends. Ebbs and flows for a country, government and culture. Debts and growth. Demographics, core strengths, and relationships. I stand by my observation: China will most likely fail.
Well if you are not confident with you own analysis why preach it to others then. If you are going give excuses that the markets are irrational then you should not give opinions about things you are not confident about.
You can very rationally simultaneously believe you're right about the future and not want to make a bet on it in the market - you need to not only be right, but right at very close to the right time, unless you're going long.
The bar for sharing your opinions is not "willing to bet on them in the market".
What does that even mean, in the end with a long period of time all companies would fail. If he claims he can look at the data he should be able to predict the imminence if not he is just using weasel words.
> The bar for sharing your opinions is not "willing to bet on them in the market".
The bar for taking opinions seriously about gloom and doom prediction is.
When, many layer up joefranklinsrs said that china would fail I think he likely meant that china today would fail in a number of years.
That is, it would have to change in some meaningful way to keep succeeding and so in term or reliable investment is not a good option whether it fail or not.
How many years?
when china will fail likely all that predicted it would have guessed by mere luck. But they might have spotted the right problems.
If I had to take a very wild guess the only ways china could fail would be success from external attack or side problems with their ability to handle the usual problems.
Also when somebody says X will fail in Y years they might mean "im working so that it will happens"
Exactly, that is why you should not waste your time reading such gloom and doom predictions unless that person is confident enough to put money on the line.
I normally don't do that if a comment is worth responding to.
If you got a downvote, it wasn't from me.
EDIT: just checked. Downvote was mine. Sorry for this comment claiming I didn't.
Still, your prognostications are all just as much hogwash as everyone else'. Whether you guys are right, or wrong, is all a matter of luck. It truly is whether you want to believe that or not.
Only difference is that lately we've been also hearing that the EU will fail. Their failure has been only 2 or 3 years away for the past 10 to 15 years or so. As for China, ever since I was at the University of Wisconsin watching Bush the Greater lose his election to Bill Clinton, China's failure has been "imminent". Five years away, a decade at most.
Every year.
For the past 30 years.
I realize that even broken watches are right twice a day, but even that would be just a matter of luck or happenstance at this point. It wouldn't be because the doomsayers like yourself were correct about the EU or China. Or even the bullish people like yourself being right about Japan or the US. Or even the people with the opposing opinions being right. I've lived long enough now to know that if you guys get something right it's likely all down to simple happenstance.