As a soon to be new parent, I've also found a tremendous anount of guess work presented as fact.

Research seems to be the area most susceptible to politics and willful misinformation. My wife and I just pick the safest perceived route, and only deviate from that when something seems like an unresearched old wives tail.

My child will sleep on his back, but I dont blame the OP for scratching his head and wondering what is worse?