Re:Ask HN: How to challenge trends without appearing like a ...
by SI_Rob on Monday July 16, 2018 @10:09PM
(#17546782)
This is almost an unofficial motto of the "prediction markets" trend, which I've heard rather elegantly compacted into the form "make cheap talk expensive"
It runs into a lot of practical problems with standardizing terms, metrics, and especially with actual money on the line, the difficult task of formally eliminating (or even just exposing) the moral hazard minefield that surrounds a mechanism which is doomed to incentivize calculated deception above all other rewards, truth included.
Economist Bryan Caplan has done a lot of this over the years, and -- although he has a lot of non-mainstream views -- I think this habit means he's taken seriously even by people who don't agree with him.
http://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/05/the_bettors_oat.html