A friend bought his house in Sunnyvale at the peak and I think the trough was about 30% lower. The decline had no effect whatever on his life, before long it was multiple times his original price.

My land lady in San Carlos told me she had a heck of a time keeping her house in the late 80s early 90s housing crash. Ya, you can win if you are liquid enough to weather the storm, not everyone is though, especially if you are heavily leveraged and go underwater on your loan.

Unless you get fired and you can’t afford your mortgage.

If you get fired or laid off, then you get another job.

Said a lot of people in 1999. And say a lot of people who are commanding high-level wages for relatively specialized skills and experience.

This was not always possible in 1991 or 2002 or even 2009.

This is true. The biggest risk with buying is that there could be a recession in the near future and you will be unemployed.

It's very unlikely that it will be 20 million. However, it's likely that it will be worth around 4 million. That would be a 7 percent year over year growth.

Yes, but nowhere near 20%. 7% a year itself isn’t very sustainable.

It has been 8.2% over the last 23 years (inclusive of both major housing crashes). "The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent," as the saying goes.

Yes, but it will always end, we just don’t know when.

Yeah but, that $2M wasn't $200k 10 years ago so why assume same trajectory? I bet more than anything the growth is linear.