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A comment on Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results didn’t come close. Parent comment

Re:Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results did... by raverbashing on Monday July 16, 2018 @08:21AM (#17540694)
it is captured in the 95% but that was probably a bit overestimated (and there are always unknown biases and improbable events can happen)

What's wrong is thinking 95% chance of winning means they will win

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Re:Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results did... by kgwgk on Monday July 16, 2018 @09:15AM (#17541012)
So it was not captured in the (overestimated) 95% :-) But I agree, the most likely thing, even if the probability was perfectly known, is not always what happens.
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