Re:The dream of driverless cars is dying
by Sharlin on Sunday July 15, 2018 @09:59AM
(#17535263)
Several people have formulated the same idea.
Bill Gates:
> We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.
Roy Amara:
> We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
Kurzweil has called it ”the intuitive linear view” vs ”the historical exponential view”:
> Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored).
Bill Gates:
> We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.
Roy Amara:
> We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
Kurzweil has called it ”the intuitive linear view” vs ”the historical exponential view”:
> Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored).