I explored the same thing but got different results from you. Bush v. Gore almost a dead tie and 2016 a slight Hillary win.
http://mrgris.com/blog/2016-12-06-538-problems-but-a-swing-s...
Re:North American vs. Japanese zoning
by bobthepanda on Saturday July 14, 2018 @05:14PM
(#17532420)
"Back of the napkin" was quite literal. Staring at tables on the internet makes you go blind if you do it hard enough.
If EC votes in a state were allocated according to popular vote, then the existing system would be a lot fairer. Proportional EC essentially reduces the advantage of campaigning in swing states, since many more states become swing states due to the relative ease of swinging a single EV vs. a whole state. And it manages to do so without completely screwing over smaller states.
I did some napkin math a while ago for this, but if this was the case, Bush v Gore would've been decisively for Gore, Bush v Kerry would have been as close as OTL Bush v Gore, and Trump's margin of victory shrinks to about 20 electoral votes from 77.