When I was reading "Black Swan" I was prepared to believe he was a genius. Then I got to the part where he bags on the Uncertainty Principle and I realized he's just a clever fool with a good way with words.

Nevertheless, it behooves us to try to remember that we are susceptible to the "Black Swan effect", the very real tendency to immediately forget that our sacred cows shit the bed.

I am not convinced he is right about how susceptible people are to the black swan effect: it seems like your average person overvalues tail probabilities, not undervalues (hence why people play the lottery and buy insurance). It's been a while since I read anything by him, but I remember not being convinced by how he dealt with the problem of induction either, which seemed to lean dangerously close to intellectual nihilism.

Edit: grammar

Not the only one. I think most of his books are actually prolonged intentionally arrogant blog posts sprinkled with pseudo-science and weightlifting metaphors with the recurrent 'fuck you money' motif.

Black swan, the concept which brought him in the spotlight is somewhat valid but it's worth at most a chapter in a risk management book. But he milks the black swan cow to biblical proportions.

Antifragile is so longwinded it's an exercise in attention and patience. I think it's remarkable how he managed to fill so many pages.

In my view, Taleb resides close to Malcolm Gladwell and Seth Godin, the 'thought leaders' experts at rebranding/refactoring common concepts and milking the proverbial cow in publishing, speaking events, etc..

i think you need to start with fooled by randomness, it's shorter and i think it prepares you for the black swan. i thought antifragile and the blank swan were life changing, they're on the short list of books I re-read every year because I think they are so important. He is a huge dick, but as long as you can get over his arrogance, I think he has a lot of great insights.