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Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by gdubs on Thursday July 12, 2018 @12:02PM (#17515880)
Reminded of this timeless Carl Sagan quote:

"We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology."

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by Symmetry on Thursday July 12, 2018 @02:55PM (#17517536)
Our civilization has attained its complexity by encompassing such knowledge that it would take a million lifetimes to learn all of it. I have made my career learning about technology and learning about science is a great hobby of mine. But I have only the dimmest understanding of even how much there is to know.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by delecti on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:01PM (#17518131)
I've been bingeing my way through a youtube channel [1] that's largely focused on old/outdated consumer technology. I'm astounded by how little I knew about how any of it worked. In particular, I was astonished when I watched the one about how VHS tapes works. There's just so much knowledge underpinning even relatively obsolete technology. As time goes on the fantasy trope of "ancient lost knowledge" becomes less hard to understand. In a hundred years will anyone know how a VHS works? Or how they encoded color information alongside a backwards compatible black-and-white analog TV signal (IMO another incredible feat)?

[1] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCy0tKL1T7wFoYcxCe0xjN6Q

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by TheOtherHobbes on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:18PM (#17518260)
There's a kind of technological pre-horizon involved in understanding any advanced technology.

Thought experiment: someone gives you a hard drive with some music and video files on it...but you have no idea what a hard drive is, or what music and video files are, or what a file format is.

Beyond a certain level, you can only reverse engineer tech if you already know almost everything there is to know about how it works, or you're vastly smarter than the original designers - by at least a couple of orders of magnitude.

I can't imagine anyone alive today being able to solve the hard drive problem, or an alien equivalent, from scratch.

You'd have to be able to work out the basic physics of magnetic storage, the disk-level coding system used, the higher level file and data organisation, the chip design in the drive firmware, the code in the firmware, the rest of the drive electronics, the coding and compression systems used for audio and video data (how do FLAC or H.265 work on the inside?) - and you'd only be able to do all that if you understood that the hardware target was a modulated gas compression reproduction system with a certain frequency range intended for use in an atmosphere with specific characteristics, and a planar display technology with a similarly limited ability to generate a moving pattern of electronic magnetic frequencies.

And even if you could decode and view the cat videos on the drive, you probably still wouldn't find them funny.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by banana_giraffe on Thursday July 12, 2018 @06:31PM (#17519167)
It's probably not fair, but I've asked similar questions about alien encounters in science fiction shows. Those like Star Trek that have a universal translator hand wave away language issues, but even then, how do they deal with the video transmission itself?

I can imagine an engineer figuring out an analog broadcast, but once either party uses anything digital, all bets are off, especially once you imagine some codec being used to save bandwidth.

Of course, showing a season of some engineers trying to decode a broadcast makes for poor TV, so I get why they never bother mentioning this, but the thought process makes me realize how much I'm standing on the shoulder of giants when I debug a video player issue.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by delecti on Thursday July 12, 2018 @06:55PM (#17519303)
Even just PAL and NTSC analog broadcasts would take some work to figure out if the alien ship was using the other one, and those were both developed from a common base of technology (early 20th century Earth).

Enterprise had them working around the universal translator on several encounters, and IMO even just that got old. It makes me glad that most series handwave away those concerns most of the time, and try to make it an interesting plot point when they don't.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by mjevans on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:38PM (#17518399)
I'd like to take that experiment a step further.

Instead of /just/ the hard drive (much like having JUST a VHS tape) you also have some complete things it would slot against. An actual (if broken) VHS player or two to examine.

Having that hardware as a reference would exponentially reduce the difficulty of the task. Even if the capacitance values are completely screwed up over time there'd at least be a sort of range and general outline encoded by the type of components involved.

Modern electronics are harder; a lot of them are electronically programmable, so you'd actually rather hope to find one of the really cut-throat cheep units that are mass produced where actual mask-roms are used. Those might hold up over time. We can hope that some sort of advanced imaging system can 'de lid' the chip without resorting to a freeze and slice method, but even then it might be possible for the mask roms to be decoded. The EEproms will have probably long lost anything other than the fact that a given quantity of storage MIGHT have been used. The actual contents of their less-volatile registers may well have decayed past any sort of recognition.

For such cases hacker/collectors might have actually done some of the job; it's possible that some archivist's collection has an obscure dump of some firmware blob or update that is requisite for the task. A civilization level archaeology effort might be able to reconstruct sufficient artifacts to either reproduce a conformant unit or at least emulate one via more sophisticated methods.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by jameshart on Thursday July 12, 2018 @10:20PM (#17520076)
Instructions unclear: hard drive now stuck in VHS player.

But seriously - imagine you had a blu-ray disc, and a CD player. How many years wasted trying to figure out how that laser and that control circuitry could possibly extract data from that surface? Yet clearly they're intended to go together...

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by felix_nagaand on Friday July 13, 2018 @12:33AM (#17520527)
Fortunately we have organizations like wikipedia, Libgen , and the web archive devoting themselves to preserving knowledge archaic, novel, fringe, and vital all alike.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by shostack on Thursday July 12, 2018 @05:40PM (#17518853)
Not sure how back you've gone in terms of that tech, but you may enjoy the Connections series (several seasons, although the earliest were the best IMHO).

It starts with some modern concept (modern being a couple decades ago when it was made), and traces the random circumstances that led to all the various inventions that got us there.

A favorite game of mine to play would be to try and put myself in the shoes of people from that time based on the conceptual understanding they may have had of things back then, and try to imagine the magnitude of the breakthrough something as simple as a pulley or gear may have had, and what sorts of problems I might try to solve when THAT was the cutting edge tech.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by rogerbinns on Thursday July 12, 2018 @03:55PM (#17518086)
That is fine! In economics there is a famous essay I, Pencil[1] explaining that no one knows how to make a pencil. Sure you put some graphite in some wood, but how do you make graphite? And how do you make the machines that make it. And how do you make the components that go into that. Or updating this, no one knows how to make a computer mouse. (You'd need some hydro-carbons for the plastic, machines, machines that make machines etc.)

In reality people know bits about small bits (think of every person involved in making a mouse back through all materials). And yet without coordination these folks all collaborated to make a mouse. I'm an optimist because people all over the world are making the world better. The rate at which it is happening is picking up, and in general benefiting more and more people. We use communication (including Amazon and Facebook), markets, social movements, regulation etc as feedback loops to find and improve.

The one thing I can guarantee is that there will keep being more to understand, and that as an individual you will keep understanding a smaller and smaller proportion of it.

I enjoy perpectives from Matt Ridley about this (eg The Rational Optimist book) and his Ted talk[2]. A nice tidbit is that King Louis XIV of France had about 500 people preparing meals for him each night. You can go to town and have the same, with far better food and service than he had. By historic standards, we live like royalty, all because we don't understand everything.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil

[2] https://www.ted.com/talks/matt_ridley_when_ideas_have_sex

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by cercatrova on Thursday July 12, 2018 @09:36PM (#17519932)
There is a YouTube channel[1] that discusses making things such as a hamburger from scratch, much like your pencil example.

[1] https://youtube.com/channel/UCfIqCzQJXvYj9ssCoHq327g

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by agumonkey on Thursday July 12, 2018 @06:10PM (#17519033)
You don't need to know a lot to change league though. Most kitchen appliances, tools are basic geometry and a bit of time. It's damning when you open them to see how there's nothing to it. It's damning to see that kids get to learn geometry in the abstract and unless they go for some kind of technical or engineering career, will never know "life critical" use of it.

Also a surprising amount of devices are overly complex because there's this historical separation between business and users (and because economic incentives are compiled into the implementation).

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by enraged_camel on Thursday July 12, 2018 @12:27PM (#17516156)
Asimov’s Foundation series is an excellent commentary on this very phenomenon. One of the antagonists is a galactic empire that is technologically advanced, but has been stagnating and decaying slowly as those in power start viewing scientists with disdain and distrust. Over time the empire loses the ability to develop new technology, and ends up with those who can only maintain/repair existing technology (which eventually becomes so old that it is scrapped).
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by mbroncano on Thursday July 12, 2018 @03:32PM (#17517854)
Having also grown up with Asimov novels, recently I was pleasantly surprised to discover Vernor Vinge's A Deepness In the Sky[1] which contains also a discussion on the very same topic.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Deepness_in_the_Sky

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by bitwize on Thursday July 12, 2018 @01:07PM (#17516576)
I'm a bit reminded of the Zentraedi from Macross, who know how to fly and fight with advanced spaceships/mechs, but not how to repair them or how they work. Except in that case it's because their patron race, the Protoculture, deliberately kept them dependent; Protoculture factories supplied as many ships and weapons as the Zentraedi might need, meanwhile, the average Zentraedi was kept at about a five-year-old human's level of cognitive development. (After Zentraedi culture integrated with human culture (thanks to a frickin' idol singer), adult Zentraedi were at cognitive parity with adult humans.)

All of which makes you wonder: on actual Earth, is there a class of tech-company Morlocks keeping the disposable-income Eloi dependent with their endless supply of disposable gadgets?

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by 1996 on Thursday July 12, 2018 @03:54PM (#17518077)
Good catch! It reminded me the same thing, Macross.

There is indeed something keeping working class humans dependants: a focus on growth at all costs (including population growth). It is pervasive (the ideology is reinforced with ads) and makes you desire for example the latest iPhone X.

With a permanent growth, the basic problem is all humans are still born with a dependancy on housing and food (and other fancier things) that are in short supply. To attain these, humans need to work. Their work is used not just to maintain the basics, but to fuel growth.

Some people (mostly millenials) have found a solution: leave cheap, remain childless.

It causes many people to freak out about the economy, the birth rate, and how more immigration is needed to maintain growth. People don't really want that, and end up voting funny.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by mjevans on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:47PM (#17518457)
"The social contract", how an individual and society interact (and are depended upon each other), is broken.

In the old days if someone didn't like how things were going there were spaces with (far less) people that they could go off in to and do their own thing; if it mattered that much.

In less old days someone was part of a community. They did things that supported the community and return the community supported them.

In recent history people were part of national communities, there were careers with 'retirement' plans and advancement tracks that enabled someone to achieve most of their potential if they wanted it.

Today everyone wants a short term solution with no long term planning or costs. There is no community because you don't know if you're going to be there in 5 or 10 years. There is no investment because you don't know if you're going to be there in 5 or 10 years. There is no sense of belonging because there is nothing to belong to. Everyone is a disposable cog in a machine that doesn't care about them.

-

People have always voted funny, and I think that's what has gotten us where we are now.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by 1996 on Thursday July 12, 2018 @05:21PM (#17518724)
The "social contract" was an elaborate way to force people into an agreement. But I agree with you, it was at least possible to leave. It wasn't organized slavery. And the other side of the bargain was more or less kept, so it even made some sense.

I don't think it is possible to leave anymore. Not just that, but we are selling out our young generation and immigrants. We indoctrinate people to borrow a debt that can't be legally discharged, just to acquire mostly useless government sanctionned diplomas. We have rules for immigrant workers that to me look like indentured servitude. And on top of that, we resent these people that make modern society possible. I am waiting for them to shrug like Atlas. I hope they will.

I am lucky to be outside out that, but it still disgust me. Like you said, this is a society that wants to treat people like disposable cogs in a machine, that doesn't care about them. I get that, and I could be on board, if only it was honest and without lies.

I just do not agree that people have always voted funny. Their perspectives were more aligned with the government before. Not so much now, and I don't think it is fair to blame them.

Without bringing politics to HN, I think I have some unpopular libertarian political opinions. But even for me, it goes way too far, and it is not libertarian at all.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by anticensor on Friday July 13, 2018 @03:55AM (#17521205)
> everyone wants a short term solution with no long term planning or costs.

Except for a few, who are treated like fools or motors.

> Everyone is a disposable cog in a machine that doesn't care about them.

The same as above. However, the cogs work more than motors, where it should have been the opposite.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by SolaceQuantum on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:21PM (#17518295)
I would think millenials actually desire growth as much as any other generation desires it. That they don’t implies they may not be able to.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by wavefunction on Thursday July 12, 2018 @02:11PM (#17517149)
The Zentraedi were cloned super-soldiers designed to serve the Protoculture and nothing else. Then the Protoculture lost control of their weapons.

Lin Meimei I guess awakened the emotions they'd never required nor experienced before.

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by shostack on Thursday July 12, 2018 @05:35PM (#17518823)
This is very much a theme in the Warhammer 40k universe. Tech priests "pray to the Omnissiah" while applying various sacred ointments (lubrication for parts?) to machinery and such to get tech to work [1].

[1] http://warhammer40k.wikia.com/wiki/Tech-Priest

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by tootie on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:39PM (#17518404)
On that topic, I think you can directly equate Behavioral Economics to Psychohistory. In fact, fellow Nobel winner Paul Krugman claims to have become an economist because it was the closest he could come to being a pyschohistorian in real life.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by bjelkeman-again on Thursday July 12, 2018 @03:29PM (#17517832)
> those in power start viewing scientists with disdain and distrust

Are we talking about a novel or the current government in power in some prominent countries at the moment?

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by madengr on Thursday July 12, 2018 @08:47PM (#17519780)
Well the good part is the, the scientists (aka priests) create a religion to control the primitives.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by avip on Thursday July 12, 2018 @04:16PM (#17518243)
Profession also discusses the same theme and it's shorter (IMO his best short story, and in a way prophecies how modern SW development works).
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by eli_gottlieb on Thursday July 12, 2018 @02:25PM (#17517279)
Eh, that kinda boils down the entire social, political, and technological arc of Asimov's Galactic Empire into the caricature we later got in the form of the Adeptus Mechanicus.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by Koshkin on Thursday July 12, 2018 @03:50PM (#17518046)
Actually, we depend on many things (not just science/tech) most people do not understand.
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by deathanatos on Thursday July 12, 2018 @09:15PM (#17519863)
I am particularly fond of this sketch by Dara O'Briain on essentially this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVxOb8-d7Ic
Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by agumonkey on Thursday July 12, 2018 @06:11PM (#17519039)
I always found this odd. Maybe civilization as a group has progressed in knowledge of the universe, but the populations are in yet another form of religion. A reincarnation of plato's cave.