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Re:Thailand cave rescue: all 12 boys and coach successfully ... by lolc on Tuesday July 10, 2018 @12:21PM (#17499494)
You never have an around 100% chance. You always have less. The chance of at least one out of ten making it if they have 10% chance each is: 1-0.9^10, that's two thirds.

In other words: In a society where 90% of children die and women have 10 births, one third of the mothers will lose all. All assuming the deaths are independent of course.

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