Very few meaning about 250 cases over a 15 year period.
Millions upon millions of votes are cast during this timeframe.
Frankly, I expect more fraud to naturally exist, like you.
But it just isn't a problem in the US.
Voting by mail is a state level thing, not every state has the option to vote by mail.
Ideology aside, it is a solution looking for a problem.
https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/debunking-voter-fraud...
And there have been public comments by GOP politicians saying they’re pushing voter ID laws explicitly to disenfranchise democratic voters.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/us/some-republicans-ac...
Race and voting demographics show Democrats have an edge nationwide that will continue to grow over the next decade and on. Republicans know this and this is why they hit mid-terms so hard. General voting is down and it’s easier to win. Add suppression methods, including psychographic warfare and they know they have a shot to rig the system.
This why Trump won and why our Supreme Court is going to take away the rights of workers, minorities, women, and immigrants.
What evidence would we need to know that all persons voting are actually valid voters?
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
We have cases in California of people voting with their dead relatives' ballots. This a lot easier with voting by mail.