If you want to attack CO2 costs, 90% of lamb's CO2 production occurs on the farm. Only 10% is from processing, distribution, retail, cooking, and waste disposal [1].
Let's charitably assume 1/3 of the post-farm CO2 emissions are from distribution and half of those could be saved by producing closer to the point of consumption.
So farm production only needs to be 1.8% (=(10/3/2)/90) more efficient in NZ for it to be net beneficial.
Presumably NZ is particularly efficient for lamb, otherwise it wouldn't be such a major export.
[1] To pick one reasonably creditble data source, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_meat_p... which ends with this graph: https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/webcitation/419e58a77a34f...
If you go with a to of lamb for simplicity thats 10g/km. It's about 10km so 100,000g. The truck is like, let's go on the high end 100g/km and what, 100km? That's still only 10kg of co2. Unless of course I'm missing something.
I'm not sure how it breaks out for air cargo (probably not great), but ocean and rail are both more efficient than trucks.
It's like saying cars produce less emissions than bikes by including the manufacturing costs of the bike but not the car.
How does the lamb get from the port to the grocery store? Is the port not roughly equidistant from the point of sale as the local farm? How is the “fancy organic farmers market” less efficient to ship to in the last mile before the point of sale?
That's not even mentioning the savings that can be had from home delivery. Although I had a local organic pig farmer deliver meat at home just yesterday, so that's not an advantage exclusive to large players (provided he has enough customers to do multiple drops on one tour - I should've asked him, come to think of it).
CO2 for meat from NZ: Shipping + last mile
CO2 for locally produced meat: last mile
How is meat from NZ producing less CO2 than locally produced?
Local: Farm -(1)-> Farmer's market -(4)-> Consumer's home
National: Farm -(1)-> Distribution center -(3)-> Supermarket -(4)-> Consumer's home
International: Farm -(1)-> Harbor/Distribution center of producing country -(2)-> Harbor/Distribution center of consuming country -(3)-> Supermarket -(4)-> Consumer's home
Where (1) is the farmer's pickup truck, (2) is a massive high-seas-capable container vessel, (3) is the 18-wheeler and (4) is the consumer's audi.
Yes, (2) and (3) may be vastly more efficient in CO2 per transported item - but it doesn't change the fact that they happen in addition to (1) and (4).
If you want to attack CO2 costs, the primary costs are in the last mile.