Well, that's still personal opinion, even if grounded in experience.

My personal opinion is that they have similar complexity, but in general Rust decides to clearly define behaviour as much as possible and fail fast, preferably at compile time. This can be seen when comparing features: memory management is there (supported by the borrow checker), smart pointers are there, references & pointers are there, generics are there (even if not exactly the same), integer and floating point handling are there, concurrency is there (compile-time checking is nice), macros are there (albeit different and perhaps less error prone), string types are more complex than cpp, enums are more complex (but also more powerful), operator overloading is there, iterators are clearly more complex (and the functional aspects in general), etc.

So the average programmer will have to learn a similar amount of concepts or even more in Rust's case.

Where Rust is indeed simpler is error handling and building.

--- I figured you would bring up concurrency, and while Rust's compile-time verification is really nice, Java also has a simpler form in threading annotations. Additionally, I believe it's rare to use such low-level primitives in Java.

Nulls (and type system holes in general) are a correctness issue, not a safety issue, unless we want to argue that all bugs are safety issues.

GC pauses are a performance issue, as you already know.

Saying that Rust threading is safer than Java's is technically correct and Rust is probably a bit safer than Java because of that, but it's hard to argue that Rust should be chosen for a project because of that (this is the whole point of saying X is safer than Y). Java is super-simple to learn compared to Rust.