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Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by confiscate on Sunday July 01, 2018 @05:43PM (#17437791)
Your world view is too narrow. That 5000 figure is important, but it's not really meaningful in the grand scheme of things.

There is a 4th or 5th scenario, where

4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around.

It's easy to assume that because a company is bigger, and have more resources and manufacturing experience, that they can move fast in developing tech. It's easy to judge a book by it's cover. Incumbents move slow ALWAYS. If moving fast was so easy, they would of done it before Tesla was born.

5. solar panels from SolarCity come into play.

Tesla has already deployed Solar grids in Australia. It's not just "smoke and mirrors", it's actually in production.

While the competitors are still trying to "match Tesla", Tesla has already moved on to find other areas to grow in tech advancement.

Right now, solar panels are considered a "toy". It's not even on any of the car makers' radar. It's like how Tesla's first Roadster cars were not on any of the car maker's radars 5 years ago. It's a "toy" until one day, it becomes a reality, and you tout your ability to "catch up" with your "vast experience"

5 years from now, folks like you will write another article, about how GM will be able to produce solar panels to "catch up to Tesla in just one or 2 years"

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by ntsplnkv2 on Sunday July 01, 2018 @10:04PM (#17438864)
> 4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around.

> It's easy to assume that because a company is bigger, and have more resources and manufacturing experience, that they can move fast in developing tech. It's easy to judge a book by it's cover. Incumbents move slow ALWAYS. If moving fast was so easy, they would of done it before Tesla was born.

This isn't silicon valley. There is years of design and manufacturing experience that Tesla simply does not have. This isn't a software project where someone in a garage can make it and scale it. Tesla can build luxury cars because budget constraints are significantly less. Now they're struggling with the constraints like everyone else.

Other car makers are just as competitive now. The reality is the Chevy Bolt is a great start and will only be improved upon. Elon Musk has no monopoly on technology. There are competitors in almost every sector. Many great engineers are elsewhere.

And the reality is - most people don't care about EV right now. Sedans are struggling mightily. Americans are buying SUVs and crossovers right now. General car manufacturers are able to easily switch production when the market shifts. Tesla can't even make a budget friendly car. Their model 3 will be out of most of the market's price range. Meanwhile GM can still make a Sonic and Cruze or a pickup truck.

> Right now, solar panels are considered a "toy". It's not even on any of the car makers' radar. It's like how Tesla's first Roadster cars were not on any of the car maker's radars 5 years ago. It's a "toy" until one day, it becomes a reality, and you tout your ability to "catch up" with your "vast experience" 5 years from now, folks like you will write another article, about how GM will be able to produce solar panels to "catch up to Tesla in just one or 2 years"

Gee why didn't GM buy FirstEnergy or Duke Energy! They're so behind in the energy industry...This argument isn't even worth debating. GM is not a power company. They do not want to be.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by confiscate on Monday July 02, 2018 @01:18AM (#17439487)
That's exactly the point I am making.

It has nothing to do with Silicon Valley. The geography is meaningless. The only thing that matters is staying ahead of the curve. It's always going to be hard for GM to do that, because it's focus is always going to be on incremental improvements of the same way of doing things. The "years of design and manufacturing experience" you mention.

Look at their $1B acquisition in Cruise Automation. Like you said, GM is not a power company, its' a car company. Its' business is cars. GM should have developed self-driving tech internally, and not had to buy it. Cars is GM's job. But GM missed that boat entirely, because everyone in GM is focused on incremental improvements on manufacturing.

Even your comment mentions that "most people don't care about EV right now." EV is not a big focus for GM. Sure it has the Chevy Bolt, but that only began development 10 years after Tesla started. GM does not care about EVs right now. It's focus is still on manufacturing traditional cars, and will continue to be this way until someone else forces them to change.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by ntsplnkv2 on Monday July 02, 2018 @12:20PM (#17442969)
> The only thing that matters is staying ahead of the curve. It's always going to be hard for GM to do that, because it's focus is always going to be on incremental improvements of the same way of doing things. The "years of design and manufacturing experience" you mention.

This isn't true. They can continue to make their general automotive improvements while also upskilling in EV - the Bolt is a prime example of that. Frankly, they beat tesla to the punch there.

> Look at their $1B acquisition in Cruise Automation. Like you said, GM is not a power company, its' a car company. Its' business is cars. GM should have developed self-driving tech internally, and not had to buy it. Cars is GM's job. But GM missed that boat entirely, because everyone in GM is focused on incremental improvements on manufacturing.

Hmm, you mean like Tesla bought the solar manufacturer for Solar City? Is that not acceptable to you? You bring up an argument against your point. GM can easily purchase anyone. If they slightly miss something a purchase is all that's needed.

> Even your comment mentions that "most people don't care about EV right now." EV is not a big focus for GM. Sure it has the Chevy Bolt, but that only began development 10 years after Tesla started. GM does not care about EVs right now. It's focus is still on manufacturing traditional cars, and will continue to be this way until someone else forces them to change.

EV is a big deal to GM because they know where the future is heading. They also are not hemorrhaging money and burning runway because they also have a sustainable business now. So they can do both.

Meanwhile Tesla can't even scale a 35K car. They're a luxury brand. period.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by solarkraft on Sunday July 01, 2018 @10:32PM (#17438957)
> most people don't care about EV right now > Americans are buying SUVs and crossovers right now

Tesla is building SUV EVs. Other makers are planning to.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by ntsplnkv2 on Sunday July 01, 2018 @11:35PM (#17439183)
They currently build a luxury SUV, yes.

Tell me when they make one people can actually afford.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by toomuchtodo on Monday July 02, 2018 @12:11AM (#17439299)
As the price of oil continues to climb, EVs become more affordable than internal combustion vehicles. Seems like a poor time to drop your sedan production in favor of SUVs with oil prices climbing, considering Americans are already changing their behavior due to existing price momentum at the pump.
Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by ntsplnkv2 on Monday July 02, 2018 @12:17PM (#17442933)
As it continues to? Please look at oil prices over the last 20 years. You will see a lot of fluctuation.

> Seems like a poor time to drop your sedan production in favor of SUVs with oil prices climbing,

GM can do this. They can change production so quickly that when oil is cheap and people want SUVs (aka now) they can do that. And when it is not, they can change production back to sedans and EV. Much more flexibility.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/03/climate/suv-sales-global-...

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by toomuchtodo on Monday July 02, 2018 @12:42PM (#17443181)
Please. GM has nowhere near the EV manufacturing capacity of Tesla. They also have a dealer network that is not interested in pushing EVs over internal combustion vehicles.
Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by ntsplnkv2 on Monday July 02, 2018 @05:16PM (#17445382)
And yet GM has an available EV car and Tesla does not.

And yet Tesla will not be able to deliver the cheap model 3 and GM has been doing it.

That's a substantial claim - without any evidence. No surprise though - it's easy to be pulled into the Musk hype.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by solarkraft on Friday July 06, 2018 @06:23PM (#17475568)
What? Tesla is pumping out electric cars in lots and are only expanding production with the Model 3.

The Bolt has been selling at between 1.5 and 1k per month while the production of the supply-limited model 3 is approaching 5k per week.

I guess I'm crazy and got pulled into the Musk hype.

> Tesla will not be able to deliver the cheap model 3 and GM has been doing it.

I'm guessing they will. Right now though, you have a point there, the model 3 is more expensive than the Bolt.

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by solarkraft on Friday July 06, 2018 @06:17PM (#17475540)
In a few years.

An "SUV" is a luxury good anyway and many of them are absurdly priced (imagine what that'd get you in a real car!).

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by mycall on Sunday July 01, 2018 @10:32PM (#17438958)
> GM is not a power company

GE is.. why are they separate companies?

Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by ntsplnkv2 on Sunday July 01, 2018 @11:37PM (#17439191)
I don't know, why are General Mills and General Motors separate companies? Not quite sure I understand your point.
Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by rsynnott on Sunday July 01, 2018 @09:29PM (#17438750)
I don’t understand why solar panels would necessarily go with car manufacturers? They don’t seem intrinsically related at all.
Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by Latteland on Sunday July 01, 2018 @10:31PM (#17438953)
The batteries are what connect them. No one else will be making batteries at that rate, at least for a pretty long time. Tesla has the cheaper batteries and related tech to use them in solar power along with cars.
Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by rsynnott on Monday July 02, 2018 @08:06AM (#17440955)
I'd assume that the Chinese electric car and bus manufacturers, who make far more vehicles than Tesla, are making batteries at a much greater rate (or at least their suppliers are).
Re:Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out ... by mycall on Sunday July 01, 2018 @10:30PM (#17438948)
Amazon should buy Tesla. That would blow minds.