31% of likely voters think US civil war likely within 5 years

Re:31% of likely voters think US civil war likely within 5 y... by dooglius on Wednesday June 27, 2018 @11:45AM (#17409089)

The ordering of the questions [0] strikes me as lending to a priming [1] effect, the first two questions evoke memories of media reports of violence on both sides, which makes the leap to civil war seem more likely by the third question.

[0] http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ques...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priming_(psychology)

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Re:31% of likely voters think US civil war likely within 5 y... by mikenyc on Wednesday June 27, 2018 @11:49AM (#17409128)

I agree. There is some priming in the cadence of the questions.

It's also likely that given the state of civic knowledge and education in the country that respondents conflated something like "violence" or "minor fighting with a political tinge" to "civil war" without really understanding how immense of a thing a US civil war actually would be.

But still, to me, even the idea that a much smaller percentage of Americans (let's say 15%) could imagine a civil war happening in the next 5 years was shocking on its face, and worthy of awareness and discussion.

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