Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in the observable universe

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by andybak on Monday June 25, 2018 @01:39PM (#17394178)

> faster than it is figuring out that we need to self-impose limits on our growth in order to avoid a catastrophic failure of our ecosystem

We "figured out" unconstrained growth could be catastrophic a couple of hundred years ago at the very least. And in fact we guessed prematurely as technology extended the date of the catastrophe multiple times.

So we then bounced into a phase of overconfidence whereby some of us decided that technology could overcome all problems.

(Arguably we are still in this phase - or at least some of us hope this turns out to be true as we've lost hope in the possibility of political solutions to problems caused by growth)

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Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by lisper on Monday June 25, 2018 @01:50PM (#17394265)

Yes, I think you have this exactly right. We've dodged the bullet for a few hundred years, which our brains are predisposed to think of as a long time. Then we (well, not all of us, but enough of us to matter) (mis-)apply inductive reasoning and conclude that because doomsday predictions have always been wrong in the past they will continue to be wrong in the future.

In fact, you can sum up the problem as a pithy slogan: Doomsday predictions are always wrong. Until they aren't.

Someone should make T-shirts.

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