‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

Re:‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Atten... by zeveb on Monday June 25, 2018 @12:06PM (#17393481)

I think it's nearly unarguable that the current market is irrational. The problem is the old adage that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and thus simply shorting it can result in short-term bankruptcy.

Worse, there's a corollary that even trying to move your funds into lower-risk vehicles now can still lead to long-term losses vice keeping them in higher-risk investments now and moving them later (e.g. in a month, or a year, or two years).

I honestly don't know what to do with my money. Right now I'm basically keeping everything where it is: not selling stocks, bonds or real estate, but not buying much either. But leaving my cash as cash has its own cost.

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Re:‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Atten... by mnctvanj on Monday June 25, 2018 @12:43PM (#17393764)

In same boat. I've just been splitting my new investments between stock and cash and treat my cash as part of my diversification strategy (or a hedge against possible market peak). If a recession occurs, I'll hope it drops a lot, put my cash back in, and hope it comes back up. All those things have always happened (recession, recovery - not necessarily me timing a market bottom) so I feel ok about my cash. Whatever it loses in value to inflation should come back if I buy cheaper stocks during a market lull. Or so I tell myself.

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