Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th...
by vidarh on Monday June 25, 2018 @07:58AM
(#17391602)
It's a argument about how close to 0 the probability of life might be, given that we know of one instance of life.
It is tempting, because we exist, to assume the probability of life arising can't be that low.
But if life is so rare that the odds of one arising in any given (causally disconnected) universe means life almost never arises, and more than one civilisation is unimaginable more rare than that again, if you imagine an infinite number of universes there will still be an infinite number of civilisations.
But being alone might be the most likely scenario if life is present, and nobody would be present in the empty universes to take them into account.
In which case our existence might easily trick us into over-estimating the odds of life arising.
Framed in a less depressing way: It might be we're not seeing the aliens because something is preventing us from observing them rather than because they don't exist.
It is tempting, because we exist, to assume the probability of life arising can't be that low.
But if life is so rare that the odds of one arising in any given (causally disconnected) universe means life almost never arises, and more than one civilisation is unimaginable more rare than that again, if you imagine an infinite number of universes there will still be an infinite number of civilisations.
But being alone might be the most likely scenario if life is present, and nobody would be present in the empty universes to take them into account.
In which case our existence might easily trick us into over-estimating the odds of life arising.
Framed in a less depressing way: It might be we're not seeing the aliens because something is preventing us from observing them rather than because they don't exist.