Sure once all that expensive and unknowable planning and development is done, you can double-click that executable and put a man on the moon.
But the budget for planning is limited. To realistically plan out most software projects would entail almost as much work as simply executing on them. That level of resources for planning vs. execution is acceptable for putting people on the moon. Probably not for building a line of business app.
If you can accept those kinds of preparations and also agree to not change the specs much (i.e. no, we aren't going to Mars instead) after we've started developing it I'll say we can get you a pretty nice estimate.
I think you vastly overestimate the quality of the software and systems that took men to the moon. Try reading https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/26593-apollo-11-m... for example - you might conclude "they got lucky"
Do we have the planning and estimates of projects that are similar to "put people on the moon"? I'd like to see how the plan/estimates of these projects look like and how they change.
Okay, but I think you've missed the point. Planning is hard, and you can't possibly account for all the variables.
Everything after that statement I can agree with
If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development.
I think the problem is the overwhelming majority of software development is so low stakes, easy to replace, assumed that bugs are par for the course, etc... that most orgs have stopped putting real effort into planning AND executing on that planning, instead just cargo culting the planning phase.