Not unlikely, but as well; both the stock discount and the moonshots have to do with Google being so dependent on one source for its income (ads) as others here have noted.

So far have any worked out?

Gmail and Android can be considered moonshots, completely separate bets from the cash cow search product. They have both been enormously successful and been the starting point for new revenue lines (the whole GSuite for businesses, the Play Store)

Next moonshot which looks extremely promising is Waymo

No one will ever know because those products were killed off...