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Re:AI winter is well on its way by bitL on Wednesday May 30, 2018 @12:54PM (#17189334)
> Unless my doctor is exactly average

Just to get back to this point: what if the vision system of your doctor is below average and you augment her by giving her a statistically better vision system, while allowing her to use the additional sources as she sees fit. Wouldn't be that an improvement? We are talking about vision subsystem here, not the whole "reasoning package" human doctors posses.

Re:AI winter is well on its way by timr on Wednesday May 30, 2018 @02:50PM (#17190497)
Again, check that table. It says a lot:

https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/mura/

On just about every test set, the model is beaten by radiologists. Even the mean performance is underwhelming.

Re:AI winter is well on its way by bitL on Wednesday May 30, 2018 @03:17PM (#17190782)
I was referring mainly to this one (from the same group and it actually surpassed humans on average):

https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/projects/chexnet/

In their paper they even used "weaker" DenseNet-121 instead of DenseNet-169 for Mura/bones. DenseNet-BC I tried is another refinement of the same approach.

Re:AI winter is well on its way by timr on Wednesday May 30, 2018 @06:52PM (#17192590)
Those are some sketchy statistics. The evaluation procedure is questionable (F1 against the other 4 as ground truth? Mean of means?), and the 95% CI overlap pretty substantially. Even if their bootstrap sampling said the difference is significant, I don't believe them.

Basically, I see this as "everyone sucks, but the AI maybe sucks a little less than the worst of our radiologists, on average"