Re:How Judea Pearl Became One of AI's Sharpest Critics
by tgb on Saturday May 19, 2018 @08:36PM
(#17110525)
Differential equations say nothing about causality they just describe what happens. Please remember that Pearl literally wrote the book on this topic before assuming he missed an elementary counter example.
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Re:How Judea Pearl Became One of AI's Sharpest Critics
by salty_biscuits on Saturday May 19, 2018 @09:57PM
(#17110750)
I feel like reversiblity is a big complication here. Very interesting and subtle area.
Re:How Judea Pearl Became One of AI's Sharpest Critics
by tgb on Saturday May 19, 2018 @10:28PM
(#17110843)
I don't see the relevance. You can have (non-differential )algebraic equations that involve a "time" parameter. They can be non-reversible in the sense that I think you mean - that knowing a point "back" in time tells you values in the future but knowing a value in the future does not (uniquely) determine the solution before that point. [For example x^2 = t^2 for t <= 0 and x^2 = 0 for t >= 0. There are two continuous solutions x(t) which are equal at say t=1.]
For differential or non-differential equations, they're still just describing how something is and not the causality behind it. It's always possible that the equation is merely a result of hidden variables and there is no casual relationship between any two points of the solution in any meaningful sense.
Re:How Judea Pearl Became One of AI's Sharpest Critics
by salty_biscuits on Saturday May 19, 2018 @11:15PM
(#17110980)
I meant in how people talk about "causality", it is always poorly defined. It seems like there is a implicit assumption about irreversible systems at play.
Re:How Judea Pearl Became One of AI's Sharpest Critics
by throwaway37585 on Sunday May 20, 2018 @04:23PM
(#17114576)
Did you mean that, under reversibility + determinism, the future “causes” the past just as much as the past “causes” the future?
Re:How Judea Pearl Became One of AI's Sharpest Critics
by salty_biscuits on Sunday May 20, 2018 @05:07PM
(#17114735)
For some closed physical systems this is pretty much true, but I think the way people think about the world is at odds with this. That is why we find things like this so surprising https://youtu.be/p08_KlTKP50
It gets even murkier when you think of statements like "Hitler coming into power caused world war 2". There are so many things going on in that system that it couldn't possibly be true (e.g. if you change Hitler out for another person maybe world war 2 still happens), but works as a plausible line of causal reasoning for a lot of people.