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Re:Xero reveals the impact of mammoth Amazon Web Services mi... by adventured on Thursday May 10, 2018 @06:36AM (#17037690)
> Let's raise a glass to the inevitable bankruptcy, in which the founders and VCs don't suffer because the IPO already happened. Here's to you, Rod Drury, Peter Thiel, and Chris Liddell (now working for the Trump administration). Great job, guys. If you end up in jail, I'll send postcards.

What an incredibly strange statement. It's so far away from the reality of the situation that it comes across as just looking for an excuse to lash out.

Their revenue climbed 38% to NZ$407 million, with a positive EBITDA, and grew their subscriber base by 1/3. That business isn't even remotely in danger of going bankrupt. If running a NZ$28 million loss results in that kind of tremendous business expansion, they should do it perpetually.

Re:Xero reveals the impact of mammoth Amazon Web Services mi... by PostOnce on Thursday May 10, 2018 @06:51AM (#17037757)
"Business expansion" rather than "business growth". I agree. They're expanding.

They're not profitable, they expanded, the expansion incurs more loss, what they're doing is digging a deeper hole. If you lose money per customer overall, and you get more customers, now you're losing even more money.

"Positive EBITDA", if you can't pay your taxes/etc and break even... guess what, you're going bankrupt eventually.

All this and they think they can compete with Intuit. This won't be the first time a New Zealand company succeeded in the "ignored by competition because its too small and has its own system of laws and isn't part of a cooperative economic zone (vs, you know, just expanding to another large city in US/EU)" and then thought it could compete overseas, only to have its ass handed to it.

Re:Xero reveals the impact of mammoth Amazon Web Services mi... by mseebach on Thursday May 10, 2018 @08:40AM (#17038285)
I don't know what their numbers are exactly, but the math often comes down to something like cost of customer acquisition being $10, and customer lifetime value being $80 over 10 years. As long as there are customers to be acquired, and money to spend acquiring them, you should get as many as you can as fast as possible. This is clearly long term profitable, but the first many years you do this, you will be in the red. The flip side is that you could stop doing this and become profitable overnight (at the cost of foregoing potential future profits).

It's still a bet, it's impossible to say if the lifetime value holds up in the face of competition, screw ups or changes in the business environment - but that's why it's an investment.

Re:Xero reveals the impact of mammoth Amazon Web Services mi... by raesene9 on Thursday May 10, 2018 @07:16AM (#17037884)
I don't really agree. I can grow a business infinitely with ease, just have a model that says "you give me $1 and in return I'll give you $1.10", as long as you're handing out free money, growth is easy :)

Now this isn't quite as simple as that but growth without profit and without the prospect of profit isn't something any investor should be keen on.

Without profit the company will have to either take out loans (which require repayment with interest) or issue more capital (which dilutes current investors).

This can be fine in the initial growth stages of a business (you have a plan to start making a profit in the future), however for a 10+ year old business who's already floated their stock, it's not great to indefinitely prioritise turnover over profit.