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Re:Fake news was illegal in 17th century colonial Massachusetts by null0pointer on Wednesday May 09, 2018 @03:30AM (#17028012)
Yeah this seems to be the disconnect. A lot of people will intuitively think (myself included) something like this. "You said Hillary had 90% chance to win, but Trump won. Therefore your prediction was WRONG". It actually takes a little more thought to understand that a Trump victory was a possibility in the model all along. And that you cannot say whether or not a prediction model is accurate based on a SINGLE result.
Re:Fake news was illegal in 17th century colonial Massachusetts by aninhumer on Wednesday May 09, 2018 @05:47AM (#17028575)
Moreover, if someone makes a lot of predictions of people having "90% chance to win" and all of them win, that is a less accurate prediction than if roughly 10% of them lose.