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A comment on Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Internet (2017). Parent comment

Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by cjslep on Thursday April 19, 2018 @05:24AM (#16874468)
You are horribly butchering Bayes' Theorem. Both your examples are incorrect because your two events ('2 girls' and 'at least 1 girl') are not oberved independently of one another, which is a necessary condition to using Bayes' Theorem with a valid result. Great tool but wrong job.
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Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by plopilop on Friday April 20, 2018 @04:03AM (#16882975)
What? Bayes' theorem does not require anything about the events, even more so it is useful when the events are not independent. If events are independent, Bayes' theorem has no usefulness. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem#Statement_of_...

Edit: however now that I look into it, I should rather have used "conditional probabilities" name rather than Bayes'. I always mix both of them, my bad.

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