Unsurprisingly when the shortfall comes the same politicians who borrowed will be shouting how pensions are unsustainable.
In New York, the pension fund is firewalled from the state budget and run fairly independently.
After the last recession, the pension fund made several changes in conjunction with the unions:
* Ensured the forecasted return estimates were in-line with reality (7%, which it has exceeded in the past decade)
* Introduced a new tier so new employees contribute for their whole career, with contribution rates progressively increasing as you earn more
* Introduced a limit on the final average salary that determines pension payout
* Lengthened the window of final salary calculation and introduced rules preventing large overtime variances counting towards this calculation.
Still a decent pension system if you can vest, but with reasonable expectations set. As a result, NYS is one of the best funded pensions in the country and in the upper 90s% of future funding levels.
Union: pay raises!
Elected Municipal CFO: we can't. No more money.
Elected Politician: what about retiring 5 years earlier?
Unions: we will take that!
Elected Politician: retiring earlier costs nothing right now correct?
Municipal CFO: yes but...
Elected Politician: Fine let's give everyone 5 years earlier retirement. My successor will deal with that when I will be gone.