Re:Goodbye ICOs, hello ILPs?
by JumpCrisscross on Thursday April 12, 2018 @09:36PM
(#16826487)
> an 80% chance of you doubling your money, a 50% chance that you 10x and a 25% chance you 20x your money -- honestly, why wouldn't you do that?
One, you mucked up your arithmetic (80% + 50% + 25% > 1). (I’ll assume you were expressing cumulative probabilities.) Two, you left off the tail of the distribution where one loses money.
Put together, I’d say no to your pitch—schemes promising a greater than 100% chance of making lots of money and 0% chance of losing any are 100% scams.
One, you mucked up your arithmetic (80% + 50% + 25% > 1). (I’ll assume you were expressing cumulative probabilities.) Two, you left off the tail of the distribution where one loses money.
Put together, I’d say no to your pitch—schemes promising a greater than 100% chance of making lots of money and 0% chance of losing any are 100% scams.