Re:A dozen black holes may lie at the centre of our galaxy
by vkou on Friday April 06, 2018 @11:38AM
(#16774043)
> So can we say anything about where we are in this period of chnage - near the end? Well with no other information we can only plump for "in the middle". Which roughly speaking means we expect to see change on the scale of 19th and 20th Century well into the 2200s.
We do have information for this. We are either towards the end, or the beginning. The rapid advance of the 19th and 20th centuries were only possible due to our discovery of nearly-unlimited amounts of cheap, easily transportable energy, in the form of fossil fuels.
We've also used up our carbon budget for them (And gone over it, in fact.) There are now three likely outcomes:
1. Renewables reach the break-even point where they can affordably provide ~95% of our energy needs.
2. They don't, and we'll cook ourselves to death with our GHG emissions.
3. They don't, and our grandchildren will be shoveling shit as subsistence farmers.
We do have information for this. We are either towards the end, or the beginning. The rapid advance of the 19th and 20th centuries were only possible due to our discovery of nearly-unlimited amounts of cheap, easily transportable energy, in the form of fossil fuels.
We've also used up our carbon budget for them (And gone over it, in fact.) There are now three likely outcomes:
1. Renewables reach the break-even point where they can affordably provide ~95% of our energy needs.
2. They don't, and we'll cook ourselves to death with our GHG emissions.
3. They don't, and our grandchildren will be shoveling shit as subsistence farmers.