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Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by AltcoinReport on Friday April 06, 2018 @10:49AM (#16773621)
Due to the massive amount of capital gains taxes owed on crypto, Tom Lee believes there will be a sell off in order to pay these taxes. Following tax day, he believes Bitcoin will find footing again.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by jandrese on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:29PM (#16774519)
Won't the capital gains only be owned when people try to convert to fiat currency in the first place? If you're leaving your stuff in cryptocoin form I don't think you would pay capital gains.

So this is only a problem for the people cashing out, and if they've cashed out then they should have the cash to cover their tax bill.

And this assumes they didn't cash out to the Cayman Islands account. Probably not a lot of capital gains will be reported to the IRS this year for cryptocoin related profits.

Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by lsc on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:47PM (#16774714)
https://www.bizfilings.com/toolkit/research-topics/managing-...

What I'm saying is that trading btc for ltc is barter- and it is taxible.

Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by tlarkworthy on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:55PM (#16774799)
Lol this misunderstanding is exactly why everyone will suddenly realize they need liquidity before tax day.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by lsc on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:59PM (#16774848)
the general rule "If you can afford an accountant, you should probably hire one" applies generally, and keeps you out of a lot of trouble.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by ska on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:43PM (#16774667)
"If you're leaving your stuff in cryptocoin form I don't think you would pay capital gains."

Note this is only true if you hold onto particular coins. If you exchange some bitcoin for etherium, for example, you will realize capital gains or losses. This has nothing specifically to do with cryptocoins, the same thing would happen to you if you bough silver, say, and then exchanged it for gold.

Your latter point is straightforward tax evasion and will be caught or not in much the same ways as other forms.

Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by jandrese on Friday April 06, 2018 @06:59PM (#16778220)
I'm just saying that cryptocoins attract the kind of people who would try to evade taxes.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by gzu on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:42PM (#16774658)
Crypto gains are taxed on each exchange whether that be btc-eth or btc-fiat or [altcoin]-[altcoin]. That’s what’s so bad because some didn’t withdraw fiat to pay for gains.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by abbieseide on Friday April 06, 2018 @10:52AM (#16773650)
A decrease of $20 for every $1 pulled from the market seems a little steep...
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by User23 on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:25PM (#16774475)
Or maybe it's not steep enough. A forced-sell situation doesn't leave much pricing power. The classical Roman fire-sale is the archetypical case. Also I'm sure many taxpayers will elect not to pay the capital gains before tax day, deciding instead to ride out interest and penalties in favor for being able to sell at a higher price. This could get interesting.

I would love to see an after the fact analysis that deduces the relative market power of buyers and sellers from the transaction history.

Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by smacktoward on Friday April 06, 2018 @01:15PM (#16775038)
For those who don't get the reference to "the classical Roman fire-sale": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_firefighting#Rome

> The first ever Roman fire brigade of which we have any substantial history was created by Marcus Licinius Crassus... One of his most lucrative schemes took advantage of the fact that Rome had no fire department. Crassus filled this void by creating his own brigade—500 men strong—which rushed to burning buildings at the first cry of alarm. Upon arriving at the scene, however, the fire fighters did nothing while their employer bargained over the price of their services with the distressed property owner. If Crassus could not negotiate a satisfactory price, his men simply let the structure burn to the ground, after which he offered to purchase it for a fraction of its value.

Through this and other schemes, Crassus became one of the richest men in Rome. He used this fortune to amass substantial political power, eventually rising to the peak of power in the Roman system by joining the First Triumvirate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Triumvirate) with Pompey the Great and and ambitious young go-getter named Julius Caesar.

Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by charleslmunger on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:23PM (#16774444)
Not if the entire market cap is based on wash trading, HODL, and speculation.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by Mtinie on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:53PM (#16774775)
I agree. It's suspect because the numbers don't add up. From the article:

" [...]Tom Lee notes that U.S. households owe an estimated twenty five billion dollars in capital gains taxes due to crypto gains."

Total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, as of 12:18PM EST on April 6, 2018 is $248,821,531,204.

According to Mr. Lee, each $1 taken from the market will result in a $22.50 decrease in aggregated market value (avg. of his estimated range, "$20 - $25").

     25B * $22.50 = $562.5B   
He's suggesting that the price impact on cryptocurrencies required to pay for capital gains is going to be double the current market capitalization? Am I misinterpreting the statement he made?

The alternative explanation I can come up with is if the statement was poorly formed and what he was really talking about was $25B in investment income will need to be reported and the appropriate short-term or long-term tax rates would need to be applied.

Rough, back of napkin estimation, assuming an even distribution between short-term and long-term capital gains tax rates--which isn't going to be accurate, but I don't have a better way to estimate for this analysis--would be:

    Short-term: $12.5B * 28%[1] = $3.5B
    Long-term:  $12.5B * 15%[2] = $1.875B
    Total Estimated Taxes Due: $5.375B

    Estimated impact on total market capitalization:
    5.375B * $22.50 = $121B
That would leave $127B in the market, or if evenly distributed over all tokens, all prices would be half of their current values after April 15 (e.g. today's $6.6k BTC would be $3.3k BTC).

That doesn't sound right, either. Am I totally off-base for both interpretations?

---

[1] Making an educated guess about the "typical" cryptocurrency investors' income bracket, but without actual numbers I'm open to this estimate being higher than reality.

[2] https://www.fool.com/retirement/2016/12/11/long-term-capital...

Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by abbieseide on Friday April 06, 2018 @02:05PM (#16775657)
I think Lee is predicting a 50% market adjustment because each fiat dollar added into the cryptocurrency market increases market cap by $22.50 because of speculation and other factors. It doesn't seem too crazy if you consider the volatile swings cryptos have had. Along with that, we dont know what to expect with this much money in potential sell offs because you can't expect investors to use other cash to pay taxes. They will just sell more crypto.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by statguy on Friday April 06, 2018 @01:55PM (#16775530)
He probably meant "decrease of $20 for every $1B pulled from the market"
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by csomar on Friday April 06, 2018 @12:47PM (#16774707)
That would drop the whole crypto market cap to $50bn from the current $250bn.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by lavezzi on Friday April 06, 2018 @01:26PM (#16775168)
I think he is wrong, this is more likely to happen next year.
Re:Tom Lee Predicts Cyrptocurrency Market Outflow to Fiat Cu... by charlesdm on Friday April 06, 2018 @01:43PM (#16775380)
So, how high do you think things will go then?