But hey, let's talk firearm homicides.
In the US, 1997, firearm homicides were 6.24:100,000, and in 20145, 3.5:100,000, a 44 per cent reduction.
In Australia, 1997, firearm homicides were 0.56:100,000, and in 2016, 0.18:100,000, a 67 per cent reduction.
So where were we again?
Sources: https://www.allcountries.org/gun_deaths_by_country.html and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-r...
Literally the only thing that the US did better in is "more, absolute" reduction in homicide (firearm and other).
Your initial precedent, that gun control made things relatively -worse- in Australia is only borne out by the most contorted perspective on numbers, and not anything relative or comparable between the two.
Right. So when a gun ban causes gang members to kill each other with knives instead, you've taken away everyone's civil rights without actually preventing any deaths. Which is why the only intellectually honest thing to do is to look at all homicides.
> Either way, as a percentage, homicides in Australia went down after the gun buyback, more than in the US, either by firearm or not.
The comparison is highly sensitive to the choice of begin/end date. For example, if you look at the 5-year impact of Australia's gun buyback (1997-2002), the U.S. rate went down about 18% while the Australia rate actually went up 10%.
It seems weird to say U.S. dropped "more" with these numbers.
So what you're supposed to believe is that a gun confiscation that was over by 1997 was responsible for a long-term decline in homicides that did not start until 2002, which coincided with a sustained period of guns per capita returning toward pre-confiscation levels.
It went up, from 315, to 342.
A ten percent increase in homicides in the US is notable. The same in a population The size of the above falls within the realm of statistically significant.
You're really drawing conclusions the data doesn't support.
The gun buyback isn’t something you’d expect to have a delayed impact on homicides. Certain weapons were banned, they were confiscated, and the program was over by 1997. Those guns could not be used to kill people. The number of guns started to go back up right after, as well.
In 1997, it had a rate of 1.733:100,000, and by 2007, 1.2.
In 1997, the US had a rate of 6.678:100,000, and by 2007, 5.7.
We had a lot more room for improvement. And you're still nearly five times more likely to be murdered in the US than Australia.
But hey, it says a whole lot about the narrative you'd like to push when you want to focus on that delta. "America got safer faster! (Just ignore the fact it was very far worse and still far less safe!)".
I think you're likely to find the homicide rate asymptotically approaches zero, and as such it would be hard for Australia to improve at the same rate as the US. I'm not sure what correlation you can show to "firearm control doesn't work" from that.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2015...