I have a simpler thesis. Is it possible that Thiel isn't particularly brilliant about politics? I mean I realize that he's rich and therefore he has to be smart about everything, but... maybe this isn't his field?

It could be that, like many right-wingers or libertarians, he saw in Trump an opportunity to break with the status quo and had the vague impression he'd get the things he wanted, or could manipulate Trump in the right direction.

But has Thiel personally profited in any way from this? He's reviled in Silicon Valley, and the Trump association hasn't obviously brought him anything new.

Have Thiel's ideological priorities been satisfied? He's known for being a hard libertarian, and he supported a man who was openly nativist and who has implemented tariffs. Failure on that score.

Thiel seems like a fairly callous person when it comes to race (as a student, he backed apartheid[1]). Trump may be more aligned with him there.

[1] https://medium.com/indian-thoughts/my-conversation-with-pete...