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Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by paulpauper on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:33PM (#16702172)
Except that Tesla is not failing. There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them. A Tesla car fatality is breaking news but a Ford Focus crash is ignored. Any shred of bad news pertaining to Tesla is amplified by the media.
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by dragonwriter on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:41PM (#16702242)
> There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them.

You mean, because they have priced them below the price that would clear their ability to produce, and have either inadequate resources or inadequate competence to scale production to meet the quantity demanded at the current price. So, they are failing at either production or pricing or both, and losing money because of it.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by paulpauper on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @06:16PM (#16702520)
The losses are due to the capital outlays for factories, bot because the car business is unprofitable. Tesla has 20% margins on their sales, which is twice that of GM and Ford.
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by jonknee on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @07:13PM (#16702938)
GM and Ford happen to make (lots of) money even after they pay for the cost of building/selling/supporting their products. That said, Tesla's gross margin in the latest quarter was 13.34%[1], GM's was 13.29%[2] and Ford led the pack at 15.34%[3].

[1] https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin

[2] https://ycharts.com/companies/GM/gross_profit_margin

[3] https://ycharts.com/companies/F/gross_profit_margin

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by AstralStorm on Thursday March 29, 2018 @06:40AM (#16705937)
The real question is, would Teslas still sell well enough at a higher margin...
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by jonknee on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:47PM (#16702300)
They're not meeting production goals and at the same time have been losing more money as production has increased. Both of those things are company killers that need to change ASAP.

Moody's downgraded their debt and it has indeed been plummeting, that's not a creation of the media at all. It's actually the opposite of your claim. If this were any other auto company other than Tesla the stock would be nearly worthless, the media has hyped this thing to the stratosphere.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by Spooky23 on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:43PM (#16702260)
Live by the sword, die by the sword. Tesla is a product of media hype. Nobody is dropping deposits for the opportunity to buy a new Ford Focus either — that’s hype.

When things are good, hype is great. Not so much when things start to implode.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by jacquesm on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @06:23PM (#16702577)
We're losing on every deal but we'll make it up in volume.
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by AstralStorm on Thursday March 29, 2018 @06:40AM (#16705943)
Except they cannot make the volume.
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by jacquesm on Thursday March 29, 2018 @07:34AM (#16706141)
There's that. But the line theoretically does have the appropriate capacity. It's a race against time, if they can't get the volume up significantly in the next 90 days they are in very hot water.

Maybe Warren Buffet or another investor with the long view would be a solution?

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by dragontamer on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:34PM (#16702180)
> There is so much demand for their cars that they cannot make enough of them.

Tesla cannot make enough of them because Tesla cannot make enough of them.

Everyone knows Tesla can sell those cars instantly if their production lines are up to snuff. But the production targets are laughably behind. 5000 cars/week by Dec2017 ?? Yeah right. Its March2018 and they haven't even hit 5000/week yet.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by anilshanbhag on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:42PM (#16702252)
The bloomberg tracker predicts a rate of around 2000 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

I wouldn't say they are laughably behind. Projects do get delayed. My own projects got delayed by multiple months. The California high speed rail is 3 years delayed ! Its better to do it right than to just hurry things.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by Bluestrike2 on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @06:24PM (#16702583)
Their most recent estimates are around ~1,076 a week. Those numbers are horribly behind their production targets. And that's a tiny fraction of the 500,000 cars annually that was the initial target for 2018 as of two years ago.[0]

Tesla bet the farm on revolutionizing auto manufacturing while seemingly ignoring much of what other manufacturers have learned over the years.[1] Long-term, elements of that bet could pay pay off. But right now? They're still struggling to scale up Model 3 production. And that's for a car that was literally designed to be less complex to manufacturer, with fewer, simpler parts relative to the Model S and X. It doesn't matter that their manufacturing approach might be more efficient in the future when everything is working perfectly if they can't meet their bills this year.

No other manufacturer has these kinds of prolonged production problems. They meet significantly higher production targets and with fewer quality control issues. If Tesla doesn't show significant progress this year (both on production targets and lowering their burn rate), they're going to be in serious trouble. Most likely, we'll end up seeing Tesla have to hire contract manufacturers like Magna Steyr to build complete cars.

Personally, I'd be fine with that. It'd give Tesla its best chance to entrench itself in the EV market before the traditional automakers step get involved. They, for one, won't have similar problems. I genuinely want Tesla to succeed, but it's become abundantly clear that they don't know how to find a way out of "production hell."

0. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-puts-...

1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/08/04/tesla-mo...

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by rhizome on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:48PM (#16702309)
I once heard a truism that projects slip by the units in which they're measured. If the due date is in weeks, it will slip by weeks. Months, months. Etc. I think HSR is being measured in years, Tesla seems to be less (I don't follow them). Point being: "slipping" by itself does not necessarily set up an apples to apples basis between different kinds of projects.
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by username223 on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @06:17PM (#16702535)
Man, that graph of "Tesla's Production vs Tesla’s Targets" is damning. Either they are completely unable to predict their own manufacturing progress, or they're telling the same lie over and over. Even at 2000/week, it will take them a few years to work through the people who have given them (refundable) deposits.
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by dragontamer on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:46PM (#16702285)
> My own projects got delayed by multiple months.

Do you have $230 million dollars payment due in half-a-year, and $920 million due in a few months after that?

> Its better to do it right than to just hurry things.

Sure it is. But the CEO has to keep the bills paid, and the bill is about to come due. I think its reasonable for people to feel worried right now.

Elon has managed to scrounge up money out of nowhere before. The Model 3 reservation system raised $300 million nearly instantly for instance. So these aren't unfathomable numbers at all.

But its a risk.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by adventured on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @05:54PM (#16702354)
Selling 40,000 or 50,000 units in the first year for a new electric car, would be a solid accomplishment.

Infiniti sold something like 60,000 Q50s globally in 2017 by comparison, for a sedan line they've been selling for decades (the G37 & G35 prior).

Nissan only sold 27,000 Leafs in the US + Europe in 2017, after seven years of availability.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by femidav on Thursday March 29, 2018 @05:53AM (#16705771)
If they can sell them instantly, then why they have such a large inventory?
Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by panarky on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @06:00PM (#16702406)
Tesla is inventing "the machine that builds the machine".

They don't have the bugs worked out yet, so production is behind schedule.

Ultimately it's a big engineering problem.

I've learned not to bet against Musk solving difficult engineering problems.

Re:Tesla Bonds Are in Free Fall by perl4ever on Wednesday March 28, 2018 @09:28PM (#16703807)
It seems like making cars is different from making rockets. Perhaps making rockets reusable provides a larger competitive moat than making cars electric. The car business is probably substantially more mature than the rocket business, because of the larger amount of iteration.