You're speaking in black and white where shades of gray are clearly the order of the day. Google exhibits certain traits of the 1984 state, Apple others.
You know, while we're on the topic, Google aren't exactly rushing full speed ahead to make the best app experience on a phone. It's not their incentive to work towards the best native app user experience, because that takes away from the web traffic that makes them the real money. And they can't track us in apps. But who cares, right? It's free. Another social contract of sorts.
I am not for strong accusations and name calling (and I deliberately didn't mention Google by name in my original post), but evidently you have no problem making this personal. If you look over this discussion, you're the one affixing labels on everything (including me). I have no commitment to maintaining intellectually impoverished rhetorical positions. In my opinion, such positions are ruining the discourse. I still don't understand why free and open-source advocates try to brush development, security, privacy, usability, compatibility, and monetization issues under a rug. Can we not fix a price to those elements? Are we so extreme that we can't accept that there are tradeoffs inherent to the system, and that approval doesn't have to necessarily equal malevolent control?
In tech, if we don't appreciate--and point out--the nuances of different kinds of relationships and different stances regarding privacy, cost, and experience, then ultimately we lose as entrepreneurs and developers because we don't see the next big thing coming, or we overvalue something that consumers are not necessarily interested in. Equating app store approval with Big Brother doesn't help anybody, and it deliberately slants the discussion.
Android is open source, if you believe it's spying on you, feel free to remove the bits of code you don't like, there are many ROMs available already. Now try to do the same with the iPhone, plus last time I checked it requires you to give your credit card before even using it...
As for the title question, we've all seen the customer satisfaction numbers and the willingness to switch numbers: http://blogs.techrepublic.com.com/smartphones/?p=816, so I think, hinging on the credibility of these data, it's an empirical fact that iPhone stands a lot to gain by going to Verizon. If you're an iPhone developer, like myself, these data ought to be reassuring.
It's clear that the tech blogosphere and its core readership have a hint of counter-consumerist taste which makes it very bad at predicting the success of consumer products (we've seen a ghosts from 2007 this weekend on HN, and I suspect the "iPad will fail" articles are bound to crop up and bite certain bloggers later). The remedy (please) is some good old fashioned market research if we're going to make business/startup decisions based on such discussions. Eh?
PS: The top comment of this TechCrunch article is perpetrating this "Big Brother" analogy with respect to Apple's app store approval. As an English major, this has been bothering me for a while. Have these guys read 1984? "Big Brother" is supposed to represent the panopticon surveillance state, you know, one where your footsteps are tracked and recorded constantly. Sounds more like someone else to me.