What is a dating websites incentive to couple people up? They have seemingly reverse incentives too. The better a dating website is the less potential users it might eventually have.

I don't think that anyone here is trying to say that this is the only industry in existence that has reverse incentives (in that their success could limit their future).

I think it's a bit of a stretch to compare online dating to an industry which, quite literally, destroys peoples lives and often unfairly targets disadvantaged groups.

One possible business incentive is that if Promise's outcomes actually cause an increase in crime, governments will be far less likely to hire them.

That's clearly not the way it's working out for private prisons.