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A comment on Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving Car Fatality in Arizona. Parent comment

Re:Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving C... by invisible on Tuesday March 20, 2018 @01:06AM (#16626181)
I wonder what the margin of error is on that one in 4 million rate since the sample size is one.

Also of note:

> Arizona has experienced a surge of pedestrian fatalities recently, with more than 10 in a single week of March in Phoenix alone. The state has the highest rate of pedestrian fatalities in the United States.

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Re:Police Say Uber Is Likely Not at Fault for Self-Driving C... by ajb on Tuesday March 20, 2018 @06:43AM (#16627330)
The sample size is not one. The sample size is 4 million. The 5% and 95% quantiles of the posterior are roughly one in 11 million and one in 800,000.
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