Someone (Schneier?) said that two things have contributed to genuine security post-9/11: locked cockpits and passenger alertness. I've heard a number of airline industry people say the same thing, e.g. that pilot guy who writes for Slate. This makes sense to me. But what do I know? I'm just a guy who stands in the line fuming at the stupidity of it all, reminding myself to breathe deeply and not say anything sarcastic lest I get hauled off to the back room.
Back in 2000, Hijacking an airplane meant that you landed it someplace, demanded some stuff, let the passengers off, then got killed by the police. Passengers knew that all they needed to do was sit tight and things would work themselves out. That's the reason why a bunch of dudes could hijack a plane with silly little utility knives. In the passenger's mind, it sucked, but they figured they'd live through it.
Nowadays, if the TSA lets me keep my fingernail clippers and I attempt to take over the plane with them, I'll get 185 people jumping on me because they expect me to crash it into something.
That's the fundamental thing that changed after 9/11. The upside of it is that it's now next to impossible to hijack a commercial flight, even if you're armed. The natural conclusion then, from a security perspective, is not to start confiscating my bottled water, but rather to continue with the straightforward, effective security that was already working.
The current setup is all about $M's that security contractors get for high-end scanning equipment (as opposed to dogs that can be trained for $50K).
If you think sniffer > dogs, I have a shooting bag (complete with recent burns from muzzle flash) I take as my duffle, and it's been through the sniffer and nothing was detected. It's easy to imagine a hermetically sealed large laptop battery with explosives to bring a plane down. The people who did 9/11 were engineers, they could figure it out...
We're no more safe than we were, but the chances are VERY slim to be killed yourself. We're better fighting heart disease than airplane terrorism.
Frankly, keeping the guns and knives confined to checked baggage, and making it possible to get from Boston to NYC door to door faster than the train, and you're on to something. I believe we've gotten to the point where we're exposing the travelling public to a higher rather than lower level of risk by the current security measures.
Take, for example, the two degenerates who recently flew from Detroit to Schippol (Amsterdam, I believe. sp? On an iphone). Those dry run jokers got to Europe and were caught there. Um, why weren't they caught here before they could... You know... Kaboom the plane? The examples are endless.
How would you design security procedures? Which procedures out of the ones that are used currently are ineffective and why? Which ones are effective and why? Which ones should we add that aren't being used currently? Will they reduce average pre-boarding time per customer? Increase it? How will that affect overall air traffic and scheduling? Will they improve safety? Reduce safety? How do you go about quantifying that? What standards are you using? How do you propose to train the security personnel in the new procedures? How much will it cost? Is there a cost/benefit analysis? Is it a qualitative matter where cost benefit analysis does not apply and it's a question of ideology? In that case, are there other ideological issues with the current system of government we should rather spend our time and resources on fixing?
With all due respect, it seems that every time I see people make an argument about airport security online, they blow the inconvenience completely out of proportion, make hand-wavy arguments that appear appealing on the surface but have absolutely no substance, and reduce a very complex problem to what does not appear to be a viable solution even at the slightest scrutiny. It's easy to criticize a working system someone has built. It's much harder to design a better one that can be reasonably implemented in practice.