We'll have to see where things are in a year or so. Microsoft does have a few areas where they may be able to pick up iPhone users:

1) iPhone fatigue. I know a number of people who are tired of their iPhones for one reason or another and either have switched (generally to Android) or will be switching when they can. Obviously Android will get a lot of these, but not necessarily all of them.

2) If gaming works well, and there's integration with XBox Live, they could start to pick up gamers. --I doubt anyone really expected Microsoft to be able to rival Nintendo or Sony when the XBox first came out, but it happened.

3) Business users. Granted, many business people love RIM, but if Microsoft is able to provide a fuller experience around business, they'll be able to attract users.

I'm not going to try to predict the success or failure of Windows Phone OS, but I'm certainly not going to write them off before the phones are in the wild.

Microsoft has all the pieces to do a really great consumer ecosystem. But they've been fumbling for so long, there's just no good reason to believe a product developed within the bureaucracy can pull it together.

The XBox succeeded largely because it was outside the bureaucracy during its formative stages. And since then, absolutely nothing from inside the bureaucracy has integrated well with it.

. Media integration into the 360 was not good.

. Media Center integration wasn't any better.

. 360/Zune integration was never really attempted.

. Live for Windows/XBox Live integration was not good.

. Live Marketplace/Zune Marketplace integration is more awkward than Live/Netflix.

etc.

You're right. They can't execute. They get 90% of the way there and fail.

I'm a Mac / Linux / Android guy. Not a Windows person at all. But I have a Windows media Centre TV and it's awesome.

* I browse upcoming movies on TV by scrolling through a list of movie posters.

* I have Sky pay TV, a DVR, Blu Ray, and Youtube in one interface

* Channels are identified by logos as well as number.

It's a brilliant consumer product. But do you know who sells it in the consumer space?

Nobody.

If you walk into Best Buy or Currys, you'll find boxes from everyone but MS. There's no hardware partners, no Sony no Panasonic no Hitachi WMC boxes. I had to buy a Dell box, a separate remote, and a separate dual tuner. The result is awesome, but there is no part of MS the company that seems to want to stand behind this awesome product.

I've been switching away from WMC, not because I don't like it (it's actually a product MS has done a really good job on), but because it doesn't work as seamlessly with the videos I watch (mkv and iso files). When I was living in the UK and had a DVB tuner, I used it as a PVR and, since I had a smaller TV, the videos I downloaded were avi's and worked fine.

But Microsoft would have to find a way to sell a box that works with the different types of TV reception - satellite, cable, or freeview in the UK, and that wouldn't be easy. (and it would be just as big of a pain in the US where they would be able to sell the most units), so I can understand why they haven't.

Still, it is strange that nobody else has really tried to sell hardware specific to WMC.

The cable/satellite providers control the DVR set-top box market. Resources poured into marketing and distributing the WMC boxes would likely be largely wasted.

WMC includes cable providers already.

Microsoft has in the past made fantastic PDA products. I've owned and used 3 generations of them.But the current crop is just awful. The devices themselves are so-so. The fatal flaw is their synchronization.

For several years now, the only change to Microsoft's ActiveSync application has been to gradually remove features -- and yes, I do mean this literally. When I bought my most recent device, the top-of-the-line iPAQ (that isn't a phone), it came with WM6 and required an upgrade to the most recent ActiveSync, forcing me to abandon the features I'd kept for years just by not upgrading.

But now, on both the computers I (attempt to) connect it with, ActiveSync will not work at all. Several hours of trouble-shooting haven't gotten me anywhere.

Even if my experience is an aberration, the fact that ActiveSync does not (and, according to MS, will not) support Outlook 64-bit can only mean that they already view the platform as a dead end.

If Microsoft won't support ActiveSync on what they claim to be their flagship communication application, how can I possibly invest the money in continued use of WM devices?

On the consumer side, I'll bet they do consider Outlook to be a dead end. --The money is on Live/Hotmail integration for consumers. For businesses, the money is in Exchange integration, at which point it doesn't matter if you are using the 32-bit or 64-bit version of Outlook.