As far as I have understood, that's not how it works economically.

Spotify is trying hard to make free users upgrade to premium, while enlarging the user base. I don't think they have any interest in playing real ads (except some music-related ones that maybe keep the labels a bit more quiet); that's the reason you get tolerable ads. But in the longer term, Spotify might decide to kill the free service (or just make it a timed trial.)

> Spotify might decide to kill the free service (or just make it a timed trial.)

I doubt this will happen. A lot of teenagers right now have only have a free spotify subscription because they don't have any money, and spotify probably wants to keep them as subscribers so in the future they do become customers.

Count me as a single data point for the example of a teenager switching to paid Spotify as a college student (albeit discounted to half-price). When I graduate I'll probably keep paying, at the full $10/month. Apple Music is tempting for Siri integration, and Amazon and Google are certainly alternatives, but I'd rather stick with the cross-platform "underdog" that doesn't lock me into using iTunes.

Also, screw Apple Music and Tidal for "exclusives."

Not disagreeing with your point, but just because spotify isn't tied to an already-huge company doesn't make them more of an underdog. They already have a much larger subsriber-base than all the other music services, and it's clear to me from seeing the way people act and their choices in what they do that, similar to netflix, it's bound to succeed despite all the armchair analysists pointing to graphs with lines pointing down.

Also, I'm curious, what issue do you take with exclusives? Do you also find fault in netflix, hulu, and amazon creating media and making it exclusive to their service?