>>> My suspicion with some back of the envelope calculations is that it probably ends up somewhere in the minimum wage range most of the time. Especially at the higher end of that range, it sort of makes sense. Assuming at least a reasonable percentage of drivers have some rational handle on what they make and their real costs, that's about where you'd logically expect pay to need to end up.

Your assumptions are incorrect. The world is filled with people who can't estimate costs, it's actually pretty difficult.

I've worked in online gambling before. I think it has a lot of similarities with Uber. It's entirely possible to have the vast majority of your customers lose money.