That's because a surprisingly large fraction of them are right.

At any given time a person is more likely to be a student, in an entry level position, or retired, than be at the height of their career.

39% in the top 1% is still an overestimate, but it's probably not far wrong to say that 39% of people will at some point in their lives be in the top 5%.

The problem is with using "1%" as the threshold, because that just means you and your spouse are successful professionals at the height of your careers, when the real problem is the top <0.001% and, even more than that, the accumulating wealth of large corporations relative to individuals.

According to old (2014-2015) measurements, to be in the 1% you need to be pulling in at least $455k a year[1], $1.4M on average[2]. It’s probably even higher today. That’s way way beyond the typical “professional at the height of his career.”

1: https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-much-income-puts-you-t...

2: http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/u-s-top-one-per...

That's household income, including your spouse's income. Your half of that is significantly less than what a senior cardiologist or senior partner at a law firm makes.

A senior cardiologist or a senior partner at a law firm is not remotely a typical professional at the height of their career. Even a typical physician or a typical lawyer is highly unlikely to ever reach that level. Cardiology is a high paying specialty that most physicians will not be in. Most lawyers will never even make it into big law much less make senior partner after making it into big law.

You could also have a year where you sell a house in excess of the gain exclusion, sell a rental property, cash in some stock options, convert an IRA into a Roth, sell a bunch of appreciated stock, sell a small business, or sell some other capital asset.

Those "one time" activities will all temporarily boost your AGI, meaning people come into and out of the "top 5%" brackets pretty regularly. It won't get you into the top 0.001%, but could easily boost what you think of as a "normal" two-income couple into the top 5% or 1% at some point in their life.

I chose cardiologists and senior partners because they make significantly more than the threshold without being some kind of Machiavellian supervillains that everyone hates. Regular doctors and lawyers still make about that amount of money at the senior level.

Senior Associate Attorney: $239,270

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/senior-associate-attorney...

Senior Physician: $225,076

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/senior-physician-salary-S...

This is also not at all out of line with what trade professionals like electricians are making when they start out on their own but by the time they retire have half a dozen people working for them.

No source but I read an article that agreed with your idea. A surprisingly large percentage of people were in the upper income range (iirc it was top 5% or so) for at least one year though it could also be due to a windfall like inheritance, insurance claim, sale of a business, etc. On mobile but will try to add source later.

I suppose the question is open to interpretation. When asked, “will you one day be among the top 1%?” some people might think, one year out of my 70 on earth, I will sell my house for $400k and therefore for a brief moment be among the 1%, so I should answer Yes. I’d expect that most people think of “being among the top 1%” as a more persistent class change.

What’s most amusing to me are the 19% who think they are currently among the top 1%. That’s just math fail.