This tells us nothing of who is actually traveling to those countries. For instance, is it mainly Pakistani Americans traveling to Pakistan? How does that play out with where they are going and who they are interacting with? Additionally, the state department may be making an attempt at predicting violence in a specific country or region of a country as opposed to looking at historical data. If they feel a conflict is brewing, perhaps they advise to stay away. They have many potential reasons to issue a warning. Additionally, those not heeding the warning may be safer in the regions they travel to depending on who they are or their experiences there. An uninitiated Caucasian would do well to avoid the Philippines alone, but someone who grew up there would generally know how and where to stay safe. This is well illustrated when you consider what happened to German tourists visiting Miami for nearly a decade (it didn't go well). Simply put, the data doesn't tell us much. It lacks context.