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Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by IgorPartola on Sunday February 25, 2018 @08:39AM (#16458880)
You are right with this analysis. The only thing to add is why Amazon still isn’t the only choice and why sometimes it is in fact better to not use it.

Your comment makes it sound like unless you know your growth pattern, can predict your spikes, don’t plan to pivot, and you know these things perfectly, you will lose. That’s not the case. The reason for that is that you have a quite significant cost difference between AWS and DIY. DIY is cheaper by a significant enough margin that you might be able to buy, say, double the capacity you need and still spend less. So if you made a mistake of up to 2x your growth and your spikes, you are still fine.

Even if you are a small operation, you still have the option to lease hardware. Then your response time to add new servers is usually hours, not days like if you were to go the full own-your-hardware route.

As an exercise, you can try to rent and benchmark a $300/month server from e.g. SoftLayer and then compare that against a $300/month EC2 instance. Chances are, you will be blown away by the performance difference.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by guitarbill on Sunday February 25, 2018 @11:56AM (#16459812)
I don't think anybody will argue that if you have a specialised workload (CPU heavy, storage heavy, etc) there's definitely cost savings at scale for DIY over cloud.

But the calculation is harder than that. People are terrible at estimating the ops personnel cost for DIY. Turns out it's hard running with minimal downtime, or engineering hardware + software to be fault-tolerant. It's hard to put a price on dev tools/APIs/doco/the whole eco-system.

Especially for that last reason, I have never been "blown away" by Softlayer, even when their instances were way beefier than anything AWS/GCP offered. YMMV.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by geofft on Sunday February 25, 2018 @01:56PM (#16460480)
> Turns out it's hard running with minimal downtime, or engineering hardware + software to be fault-tolerant.

It's hard to do that with cloud too. Your instances can go down at any time.

What you're trading off is a small number of people on-site at the data center (and it can in fact be small!) plus some slightly-old-school sysadminning versus new-school cloud-native development. Maybe the latter is easier to hire for (although I doubt that) or your current people find it more fun. But it's not like physical hardware dies all the time, or that you're immune from seeing the effects of physical hardware dying just because you're on the cloud.

You might save on hiring one person to replace disks when they fail and one person to write some PXE boot automation, but you'll need more than two people to run a Kubernetes at the same scale of compute capacity than those two people could have run for you.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by user5994461 on Sunday February 25, 2018 @01:16PM (#16460284)
Well, you and the poster are about to be disappointed. I did the comparison recently for 512GB memory servers and Google Cloud is now the same price as SoftLayer, while AWS is a bit more.

https://thehftguy.com/2018/01/15/the-inevitable-demise-of-ib...

If you are willing to pay a lot of money upfront, which you are since you're talking about building your own datacenter, AWS and Google will both give you huge discount and be significantly cheaper than SoftLayer.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by IgorPartola on Sunday February 25, 2018 @03:08PM (#16460898)
I don’t see any performance details in your write up. Is the SL server actually comparable to the GC one? I don’t know how to equate vCPUs to real world performance.

Memory is easy to compare. But how does it stack up CPU-wise.

Another question is whether lower tier servers compare favorably or not. How does a $200-500/month server compare?

Lastly, is it possible that SL is just not competitive anymore, but another provider is? I have gotten out of that gig a few years ago so I honestly don’t know, but is it possible that Hetzner or someone similar is now the leader in leased hardware?

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by user5994461 on Monday February 26, 2018 @05:58PM (#16469749)
CPUs are in the same ballpark. They are all recent generation Intel Xeon with a lot of cores. The providers each have a few different builds, you'd need to provision the machine and check the model number if you want the details.

SoftLayer is a disaster on lower tier servers. You only go to them for higher tiers.

The market is very competitive and moving fast. Both Google Cloud and AWS have been rolling out high memory hardware recently at a reasonable rate.

Hetzner is amateur tier. It's cheap second hands servers with no ECC. It's not comparable to enterprise infrastructure.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by guitarbill on Monday February 26, 2018 @04:06AM (#16464079)
I think you misunderstand, I agree Softlayer is terrible - I was merely pointing out that when their pricing wasn't bad, their tooling has always been pants.

(But then they were bought by a company who's "cloud strategy" is to put the word "cloud" in as many DB2 and mainframe contracts as possible.)

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by user5994461 on Monday February 26, 2018 @06:05PM (#16469798)
Yes, I agree that the tooling is subpar but the price point and the servers with terabyte of memory were decent arguments, when the competition didn't have them.

It's noteworthy that SoftLayer is now worse on all aspects.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by tedchs on Sunday February 25, 2018 @08:44PM (#16462398)
> if you have a specialised workload (CPU heavy, storage heavy, etc) there's definitely cost savings at scale for DIY

I wasn't sure what your use "heavy" means here -- is it "a lot of" or "disproportionate"? Years ago there was much less flexibility with IaaS machine shapes, but I was super impressed when Google launched "custom machine types". There's a little slider to scale up/down your RAM/CPU independently, and of course storage is already independent. In fairness, there is some correlation between CPU allocation and storage IOPS, but that's inherent to scheduling a portion of the host machine reasonably.

https://cloud.google.com/compute/docs/instances/creating-ins...

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by guitarbill on Monday February 26, 2018 @04:13AM (#16464099)
Yeah, if you're using loads of CPU, but not all the RAM or block storage. This usually happens if your problem isn't really parallelisable. Then scaling out isn't really something you can do easily or quickly, so the cloud loses it's appeal a bit. In those cases, it might make sense to go DIY/in-house.
Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by IgorPartola on Sunday February 25, 2018 @01:10PM (#16460253)
First I don’t mean SoftLayer’s cloud. I mean their physical boxes. A dual processor Xeon that is all your own is a lot.

Second, it depends on your expertise. And you don’t need scale. I ran a successfully bit of infrastructure on SL with seven servers that was quite a bit cheaper than an equivalent AWS setup. I was pretty much solely responsible for the infrastructure and still my responsibilities included more than 80% coding and later management. Given my salary at the time, it was quite cost effective.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by imbkr on Sunday February 25, 2018 @01:31PM (#16460352)
was the comparison based on on-demand instances or reserved instances? we reserve almost all of our instances within our company for 3 years and also get an extra discount on top of it. based on my calculations, i've seen AWS cheapest out of all. would like to know if i'm missing anything
Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by IgorPartola on Sunday February 25, 2018 @03:11PM (#16460911)
This was a few years ago so prices have changed on both sides. What I advocate is doing exactly what you did: do a comparison with actual numbers and performance stats instead of hand waving that the cloud is always best.
Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by mgkimsal on Sunday February 25, 2018 @04:14PM (#16461186)
another factor that gets overlooked some is on-hand skills and hireable skills.

if you have experience (and/or your team does) with dedicated, that should probably be for a non-trivial in decision making. likewise if you have more aws/cloud experience (or have those skills available on staff), there's benefits to that.

cloud skills don't magically happen - someone with minimal AWS skills can provide you with a setup that is more expensive to run, and possibly more insecure than a locked down dedicated box.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by IgorPartola on Sunday February 25, 2018 @06:04PM (#16461745)
Exactly. If you have expertise to run your own servers, and you don't have a spiky workload, maybe it's worth it. If you have cloud expertise, that may be the winner.
Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by mylons on Sunday February 25, 2018 @11:30AM (#16459660)
you make a good point, but my anecdotal story from experience says you really need 10-30x your average capacity for peak times instead of double. an ideal world would be you have your "cheap" datacenter that you use most of the time, and somehow extend into the cloud for the true rare event when you need 30x. I'm not sure how feasible that is, though
Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by brodock on Monday February 26, 2018 @10:50AM (#16466102)
Can't you use a hybrid strategy and use the cloud only to handle the peak load?

Handling variable load is not free in the cloud, so if you are going to pay it anyway, you can keep your predictable cost down and use the cloud when you have that temporary extra load.

Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by IgorPartola on Sunday February 25, 2018 @03:10PM (#16460904)
Depends on your workload. If your see this traffic pattern, then yes you absolutely are a candidate for the cloud. But if you are, say, an ecommerce shop and your spike is just double your regular traffic, then who knows what’s better.
Re:Dropbox saved almost $75M over two years by moving out of... by thesz on Sunday March 04, 2018 @11:29AM (#16515254)
Can you use AWS for extraordinary peaks and DIY solution for cooler periods of time?