Well, you need to try to look beyound economy. There are such concepts as Energy return on Investment, when you start to thi9nk in pure energy terms. Horisontal drilling is much more energetically expensive. So you lower your return from 20:1 from conventional oil, to 7:1 or something like that. After some threshhold you don't have enough spare energy to pay to doctors, teachers and computer programmers. And industrial civilisation starts to collapse. Read Odum for these concepts.